Argument Topic 10
The council of Maple County, concerned about the county’s becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The underlying argument being made by Maple County government is that its housing development situation is most similar to that of Pine County, where in the span of 15 years since the passage of a new measure limiting development, prices have doubled. This doesn’t preclude some similarities to Chestnut County, where prices have increased only modestly after a similar measure, but it signifies Maple County’s more cautious approach to housing prices. In order to come to evaluate Maple County’s decision effectively, some other factors need to be taken into account, to whit: the rate at Pine County and Chestnut County’s housing prices have increased in the years ensuing since the passage of their respective policy measures, the projected rates of change for housing costs in the future in those communities, and in what ways each communities’ policy measures differed with respect to the amount of development that was allowed. When these factors are taken into account, the Maple County leadership will be able to make a much more clear-eyed decision about the fate of their community.
The most glaring question has to do with the relative similarities of these three Counties. Is Maple more similar to Chestnut or Pine and in what respects? Likewise, how similar are Chestnut and Pine to each other. The time scale on the data presented here is such that Pine and Chestnut Counties’ housing price rates could very well be increasing at identical rates. That is the prices in Pine County may well have increased at only a modest rate in the first 10 years before nearly doubling in the interim between the tenth and fifteenth. In any event, the Maple County real estate mavens have judged that their community is dangerously similar to Pine in the longer term, but more information, on the congruencies of these economies would certainly help fine tune any policy decision.
Another factor that is absolutely begging for further elucidation is the actual rates of development that were allowed for farmland in these three arborial burroughs. The powers that be in Maple would do well in their preliminary studies to tweak the development side of the equation too. In other words, how much farmland was allowed to be developed over time in Chestnut and Pine. Can these development numbers be correlated with the ballooning housing prices there. This more refined speculation might well give the Maple council members a hint about how much farmland development ought to be allowed in an ideal situation.
This is certainly not an exhaustive list of further factors for study. Starting and ending housing prices in each community would be more than pertinent….
This is the second one of these I wrote this morning. Not at all confident about it. But it was a good stamina check. I happened to pick 2 very similar topics– both dealing with small community economic policies. Need to make certain I don’t let my ideology get the best of me and start leaking out into my writing in the form of irrelevant off-topic palavering.